Aug 08
12
Russia is Getting Really Scary
I don’t know about anyone else, but the invasion of Georgia by Russia is really scary. It’s too similar to the invasions of its neighbors when the Soviet Union was still forming. The difference this time is instead of being because of the Communism ideology, this time it seems to be because of the capitalist ambitions of Putin.
From what I’ve read, this seems to be what’s happened.
There are two groups in Georgia that don’t like being together. There are the ethnic Georgians and ethnic Russians. Now Georgia wasn’t a very nice place for its first decade of existence after separating from the Soviet Union. In 2003 they had what is referred to the Rose Revolution where they overthrew the corrupt government and a new flourishing democracy was established. Since then the Georgian government has been extremely pro-West and especially pro-US even sending 2000 Georgian troops to help the US in Iraq as an ally. In recent years the Bush administration has been trying to put Georgia on the fast track to NATO membership in order to protect this new and successful democracy.
The two provinces in Georgia that are primarily made up of ethnic Russians haven’t been too happy about Georgian rule and have consistently fought the government and has had some form of autonomous rule. Russia has always supported these provinces to be a thorn in the side of the Georgian government but has stepped up its support in recent years as the government has become much more pro-US. They’ve been giving them supplies and weapons. Starting in 2004 Russia has even been issuing Russian passports to the people in these provinces claiming them as Russian citizens. They’ve also been encouraging them to provoke an invasion of the province by Georgian troops. In the past several weeks Putin has placed Russian forces in position to finally make their play. Georgian troops were provoked to invade the province and within a very short time Russian troops swooped in to decimate the Georgian troops in the provinces. Then they went further bombing residential and industrial areas well outside the disputed provinces in an attempt to topple the Georgian government.
The Bush administration has come out with some strong words but as of yet, has not declared publicly what the US would do if Russia does not leave the Georgian borders.
Obama has had little to say about the Russian invasion except the Rodney King-esque plea of “Can’t we all just get along” as he vacations in Hawaii.
McCain, in a campaign speech in Pennsylvania, has resoundly condemned the invasion. McCain seems to have their number. PowerLine Blog has the text of a lot of the speech but I’m going to give the highlights.
…but [Georgia is] at a strategic crossroads. There’s a pipeline, an oil pipeline, Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan, which brings oil from the Caspian to points west and traverses Georgia — that’s the very pipeline that the Russians tried to bomb. And I don’t have to tell you about the price of oil and disruption of oil supplies.
…The Russian government stated it was acting only to protect Ossetians, and yet, on Saturday, its bombing campaign encompassed the whole of Georgia. Hundreds of innocent civilians have been wounded and killed — possibly thousands. Military bases, apartment buildings, and other infrastructure all came under Russian fire. And the Russian Black Sea Fleet began concentrating off of the Georgian coast.
…In the face of this threat, the leaders of Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, Ukraine and Latvia — you know there’s a common thread there amongst them, they all suffered under Soviet domination — they’ve all announced that they’ll travel to the region, and the French president is in Moscow in an attempt to help resolve the crisis. They understand that it’s a responsibility of the leading nations of the world to ensure that history continues to record reform and make progress toward respecting the values and security of all free people.
This is the situation in Georgia as we meet here this morning. The impact of Russian actions goes beyond their threat to a democratic Georgia. Russia has used violence against Georgia to send a signal to any country that chooses to associate with the West and aspire to our shared political and economic values.
My friends, we learned at great cost the price of allowing aggression against free nations to go unchecked. With our allies, we must stand in united purpose to persuade the Russian government to withdraw its troops from Georgia. There must be an independent, international peacekeeping force in the separatist regions. And we should ensure that humanitarian aid can be airlifted to Georgia’s capital, and stand ready to help our Georgian partners put their country back together. And we must make clear to Russia’s leaders that the benefits they enjoy from being part of the civilized world require their respect for the values, stability, and piece of that world.
My friends, today the killing goes on and aggression goes on. Yet, I know from speaking this morning to the President of Georgia, Misha Saakashvili, who I’ve known for many years, that he knows that the thoughts and the prayers and support of the American people are with that brave little nation as they struggle today for their freedom and independence. And he wanted me to say thank you to you, to give you his heartfelt thanks for the support of the American people for this tiny little democracy far away from the United States of America. And I told him that I know I speak for every American when I say to him, today, we are all Georgians.
McCain has it right. This is about oil and the price of it. Russia has become a huge exporter of oil and they have a lot to gain if the pipeline gets destroyed and the supply of oil to the Europe is cut. I haven’t been much of a McCain supporter but in a world where we still are the target of Terrorists, Iran is becoming a nuclear threat, and an opportunistic and expansive Russia, I’d rather have McCain at the helm than Obama by a long shot.
The US is not in a position militarily to do much to Russia right now. In The Wall Street Journal today, the editorialist suggests what exactly the US can do in this situation and I think they’re spot on.
The Georgia invasion is a direct slap at the Western alliance. Tbilisi, like Kiev, has been pushing for NATO membership. Mr. Putin decided to act while some alliance members, led by Germany, dallied over their applications. Georgia was first. Ukraine, which has been pushing Russia to move its Black Sea fleet’s headquarters out of the Crimea, could be next.
The alliance needs to respond forcefully, and it can start today. NATO officials have granted Russia a special meeting before deciding what to do about Georgia — though we don’t recall Russia briefing NATO about its plans in the Caucasus. The meeting is an opportunity to relay to Moscow that Georgian and Ukrainian membership is back on the table and that the alliance is considering all options for Georgia, from a humanitarian airlift to military aid, if Russia doesn’t withdraw immediately.
Mr. Putin is betting that the West needs him for oil and deterring Iran’s nuclear ambitions more than he needs the West. He’s wrong — not least since his “cooperation” on Iran consists of helping Tehran stall for time and selling the mullahs advanced antiaircraft missiles. Russia also needs the West’s capital and especially its expertise in developing its oil and gas fields at least as much as the West needs Russian energy supplies.
…There’s one other way the U.S. could hit Russia where it hurts: by strengthening the dollar. The greenback’s weakness has contributed greatly to the record oil prices that have in turn made Russia flush with petrodollars and fueled Mr. Putin’s expansionist ambitions. Crude prices continued to fall yesterday, below $115 a barrel, and further deflating that bubble would do more to sober up an oil-drunk Kremlin than would any kind of economic sanctions.
We may be extended to our limits militarily, but there is a lot that we can do. Who would you rather be deciding how to help the situation?